Probabilistic Modelling of Risks of Cycling Accidents. A case study of Greater Manchester

Bicycling is an often overlooked means of transportation, both for commuting and for recreation which, in recent years, has gained in popularity. It is also an environmentally friendly, economical and healthy activity. Statistics, however, show that in last few decades cycling safety has been neglected comparing to driving safety. World Health Organisation’s Global Status Report on Road Safety (WHO 2013) states that 27% of global road traffic deaths were amongst pedestrians and cyclists. Further, only 27% residents of Greater Manchester think cycling is safe (Bike Life Greater Manchester 2017). Hence, cycling is mentioned as a part of the strategy to eliminate fatal road accidents Vision Zero, successfully implemented in cities of Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. In the UK, in 2018, Transport for London published its Vision Zero action plan. Also, while the number of miles cycled by the British increased over the last years, cycling accounts for a small proportion of all the journeys.